Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 674 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:05	SJC 17:40	23%	5%	0.5%	38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50WN 3993	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439	6h 30m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SJC 09:40WN 2978	6h 20m	96%	89%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800	2h 30m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	7h 45m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 20m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	9h 25m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	8h 01m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 00m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:15 → AUS 07:25WN 1271	50m Austin	AUS 08:15 → SJC 09:45WN 398	6h 30m	93%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800	50m Denver	DEN 07:50 → SJC 09:25WN 494	6h 10m	74%	69%
Southwest Details →	BNA 18:40 → DEN 20:30WN 505	50m Denver	DEN 21:20 → SJC 23:00WN 1728	6h 20m	61%	41%
Southwest Details →	BNA 17:20 → LAS 19:15WN 547	55m Las Vegas	LAS 20:10 → SJC 21:40WN 2352	6h 20m	55%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON