Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1068 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 1068 BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4791 BNA 16:20 → SLC 18:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1068 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:35	SLC 10:15	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1593 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:01	SLC 16:37	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2209 Delta Flight history →	BNA 19:34	SLC 22:10	17%	4%	0.6%	75%
WN 4791 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:20	SLC 18:55	21%	5%	0.5%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON