tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4124 Southwest Flight history → BNA 14:10 SMF 16:45 22% 7% 0.5% 48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 2h 00m Denver DEN 09:00 → SMF 10:25WN 1739 7h 10m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 50m Phoenix PHX 07:45 → SMF 09:45WN 2885 6h 25m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 7h 50m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:35 → LAS 08:25WN 544 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122 6h 35m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451 1h 06m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 7h 51m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 35m Denver DEN 11:30 → SMF 13:05UA 1415 8h 05m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 41m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 53m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828 7h 40m 69% 55%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 17:15 → DEN 19:15WN 504 1h 05m Denver DEN 20:20 → SMF 21:55WN 136 6h 40m 73% 50%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 18:40 → DEN 20:30WN 505 1h 05m Denver DEN 21:35 → SMF 23:10WN 1744 6h 30m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON