Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 677 BNA 11:50 → SRQ 14:45 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest WN 2700 BNA 19:45 → SRQ 22:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 677 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:50	SRQ 14:45	17%	5%	17.4%	65%
G4 2980 Allegiant	BNA 19:58	SRQ 22:53	25%	9%	17.8%	no record
WN 2700 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:45	SRQ 22:45	26%	9%	17.0%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON