Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 679 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 679 BNA 06:10 → STL 07:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 770 BNA 18:10 → STL 19:30 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 679 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:10	STL 07:30	2%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1371 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:05	STL 14:20	16%	3%	0.5%	74%
WN 682 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:30	STL 22:50	22%	5%	0.6%	57%
WN 770 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:10	STL 19:30	25%	5%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON