Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 683 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 683 BNA 06:50 → TPA 09:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 686 BNA 18:45 → TPA 21:35 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 683 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 06:50	TPA 09:40	5%	1%	17.1%	88%
AA 3825 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 08:31	TPA 11:25	14%	3%	15.0%	75%
WN 684 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:50	TPA 14:40	15%	3%	17.1%	74%
AA 3823 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BNA 13:30	TPA 16:24	17%	4%	15.6%	77%
WN 2173 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:25	TPA 00:20	25%	7%	11.1%	73%
WN 685 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:20	TPA 18:15	27%	6%	17.1%	38%
WN 686 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:45	TPA 21:35	35%	8%	15.4%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON