tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 690 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 690 Southwest Flight history → BNA 08:10 TUL 09:45 5% 1% 0.5% 88%
WN 696 Southwest Flight history → BNA 22:40 TUL 00:20 24% 5% 0.5% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485 1h 25m Dallas DAL 08:25 → TUL 09:30WN 4445 4h 20m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 3h 20m Chicago MDW 10:00 → TUL 11:50WN 680 6h 45m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 59m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 08m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 5h 38m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 3h 20m Denver DEN 10:20 → TUL 13:05WN 1762 7h 50m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:06 → TUL 12:18AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 7h 17m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:30 → IAH 08:42UA 396 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → TUL 13:36UA 5413 · flown by SkyWest 7h 06m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → TUL 12:59AA 2853 7h 28m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 21:20 → TUL 23:25UA 1658 5h 01m 60% 49%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50WN 490 1h 05m Dallas DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:05WN 1419 4h 10m 71% 45%
AmericanDetails → BNA 19:34 → DFW 21:50AA 5475 · flown by PSA 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 4h 13m 63% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON