tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4206 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4206 Southwest Flight history → BNA 10:10 TYS 12:00 14% 2% 0.5% 80%
WN 694 Southwest Flight history → BNA 19:20 TYS 21:15 26% 7% 0.5% 32%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 08:39 → TYS 09:36DL 1290 3h 26m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 3h 52m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont 4h 07m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 4h 00m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451 2h 32m Chicago ORD 10:30 → TYS 13:19UA 6037 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:43 → ORD 12:39AA 3439 · flown by Envoy 2h 34m Chicago ORD 15:13 → TYS 18:02AA 3783 · flown by Envoy 6h 19m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:01 → DFW 07:12AA 2821 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:45 → TYS 12:53AA 2873 6h 52m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 33m Dulles IAD 12:50 → TYS 14:27UA 6110 · flown by Mesa 4h 57m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:01 → ORD 18:09AA 6200 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Chicago ORD 19:09 → TYS 21:58AA 5001 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 71% 55%
AmericanDetails → BNA 17:32 → MIA 20:59AA 1501 46m Miami MIA 21:45 → TYS 23:59AA 2716 5h 27m 59% 40%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:00 → DCA 09:04AA 5440 · flown by PSA 54m Washington DCA 09:58 → TYS 11:45AA 5647 · flown by PSA 4h 45m 39% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON