Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4353 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4353 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:05	VPS 09:30	5%	1%	0.6%	84%
WN 2982 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:40	VPS 21:10	23%	6%	0.6%	49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 19m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	7h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092	6h 11m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	4h 12m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 04m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:10 → DAL 07:00WN 485	3h 00m Dallas	DAL 10:00 → VPS 11:55WN 205	6h 45m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462	2h 25m Baltimore	BWI 12:00 → VPS 13:20WN 246	6h 35m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:55 → ATL 13:05DL 1155	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083	5h 26m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 18:39 → MIA 22:04AA 1452	1h 06m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	5h 20m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON