tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3116 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3116 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → BOI 09:06 BUR 10:19 11% 5% 0.6% 92%
WN 697 Southwest Flight history → BOI 16:35 BUR 17:30 29% 10% 0.7% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BOI 06:30 → SMF 06:55WN 715 2h 05m Sacramento SMF 09:00 → BUR 10:15WN 3764 4h 45m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 05:25 → PHX 06:30WN 4470 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243 5h 15m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 3h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 06:00 → LAS 06:45WN 701 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → BUR 09:00WN 3327 4h 00m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOI 11:53 → SLC 13:06DL 1754 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → SFO 07:30UA 4678 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 4h 27m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 2h 46m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 18m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon 1h 08m Portland PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386 4h 44m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BOI 13:05 → SLC 14:18DL 1442 47m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 4h 07m 70% 63%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:27 → SEA 17:06AS 740 52m Seattle SEA 17:58 → BUR 20:39AS 1372 5h 12m 61% 41%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 10:00 → SEA 10:34AS 2166 · flown by Horizon 46m Seattle SEA 11:20 → BUR 13:56AS 529 4h 56m 13% 9%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON