Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 698 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 698 BOI 07:10 → DEN 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 700 BOI 16:25 → DEN 18:20 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 698 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 07:10	DEN 09:00	4%	1%	0.5%	98%
UA 5924 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 05:00	DEN 07:05	4%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 1782 United Flight history →	BOI 06:30	DEN 08:29	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 699 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 10:25	DEN 12:20	11%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 6041 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:20	DEN 12:27	11%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 2173 United Flight history →	BOI 14:41	DEN 16:40	22%	7%	0.5%	76%
UA 2395 United Flight history →	BOI 17:46	DEN 19:45	25%	7%	0.5%	46%
WN 700 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 16:25	DEN 18:20	32%	7%	0.5%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON