Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 701 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 701 BOI 06:00 → LAS 06:45 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 704 BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 701 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 06:00	LAS 06:45	2%	1%	0.5%	96%
WN 702 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 12:05	LAS 12:55	18%	5%	0.5%	88%
WN 704 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 19:40	LAS 20:25	44%	13%	0.5%	45%
AS 2087 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 16:15	LAS 17:12	16%	8%	3.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON