Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4432 at 08:45, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4432 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 08:45	MDW 13:05	8%	2%	0.6%	100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BOI 05:25 → PHX 06:30WN 4470	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:30 → MDW 12:50WN 3296	6h 25m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	BOI 06:00 → LAS 06:45WN 701	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271	6h 55m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	BOI 07:10 → DEN 09:00WN 698	1h 00m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	5h 15m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25WN 704	3h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 45m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	BOI 10:25 → DEN 12:20WN 699	3h 30m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	7h 50m	98%	74%
Southwest Details →	BOI 16:25 → DEN 18:20WN 700	2h 30m Denver	DEN 20:50 → MDW 00:15 +1WN 1615	6h 50m	97%	73%
Southwest Details →	BOI 07:40 → SAN 08:55WN 712	3h 15m San Diego	SAN 12:10 → MDW 18:10WN 4163	9h 30m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	BOI 12:05 → LAS 12:55WN 702	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 16:05 → MDW 21:45WN 2274	8h 40m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON