tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4539 at 15:25, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4539 Southwest Flight history → BOI 15:25 OAK 16:05 24% 6% 0.5% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon 3h 46m Portland PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon 6h 54m 99% 97%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 3h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 05:25 → PHX 06:30WN 4470 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 07:45 → OAK 09:45WN 3303 5h 20m 100% 92%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 05:57 → PDX 06:17AS 1566 3h 12m Portland PDX 09:29 → OAK 11:21AS 3055 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 06:00 → LAS 06:45WN 701 1h 50m Las Vegas LAS 08:35 → OAK 10:10WN 1254 5h 10m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest 6h 08m 98% 90%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229 3h 09m Portland PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon 6h 18m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOI 11:53 → SLC 13:06DL 1754 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 5h 28m 94% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229 48m Portland PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon 4h 00m 71% 69%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25WN 704 1h 30m Las Vegas LAS 21:55 → OAK 23:30WN 2289 4h 50m 73% 50%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 10:00 → SEA 10:34AS 2166 · flown by Horizon 1h 07m Seattle SEA 11:41 → OAK 13:59AS 1328 4h 59m 58% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON