Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5386 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 5386 BOI 08:25 → ORD 13:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2340 BOI 15:10 → ORD 19:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5386 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:25	ORD 13:10	13%	5%	0.8%	85%
UA 440 United Flight history →	BOI 12:34	ORD 17:05	19%	5%	0.6%	69%
AA 2340 American Flight history →	BOI 15:10	ORD 19:59	28%	7%	0.6%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808	50m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → ORD 11:32DL 1567	5h 02m	91%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON