Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4470 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4470 BOI 05:25 → PHX 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 711 BOI 17:55 → PHX 19:05 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4470 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 05:25	PHX 06:30	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
AA 6475 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:11	PHX 09:30	14%	4%	0.5%	92%
AS 3095 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 14:55	PHX 16:14	20%	7%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
AA 4948 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 13:57	PHX 15:16	23%	6%	0.6%	83%
AA 4934 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 17:20	PHX 18:40	25%	7%	0.6%	73%
WN 711 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 17:55	PHX 19:05	40%	10%	0.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON