Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 712 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 712 BOI 07:40 → SAN 08:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 713 BOI 21:55 → SAN 23:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 712 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 07:40	SAN 08:55	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
AS 3235 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 07:57	SAN 09:24	17%	6%	0.6%	81%
WN 713 Southwest Flight history →	BOI 21:55	SAN 23:10	30%	10%	0.6%	50%
AS 2342 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:00	SAN 21:22	56%	12%	0.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON