tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3131 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → BOI 07:37 SJC 08:32 3% 2% 0.6% 98%
WN 714 Southwest Flight history → BOI 12:20 SJC 13:05 13% 3% 0.5% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BOI 05:25 → PHX 06:30WN 4470 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 07:45 → SJC 09:40WN 2978 5h 15m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → BOI 06:00 → LAS 06:45WN 701 3h 10m Las Vegas LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439 6h 30m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOI 13:05 → SLC 14:18DL 1442 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 100% 90%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 05:57 → PDX 06:17AS 1566 58m Portland PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon 4h 12m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOI 08:25 → SLC 09:44DL 3607 · flown by SkyWest 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 5h 10m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOI 10:35 → SEA 11:26DL 3750 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Seattle SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 7h 30m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BOI 07:00 → LAX 08:20DL 3725 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Los Angeles LAX 09:22 → SJC 10:38DL 2965 4h 38m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 3h 16m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 7h 54m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25WN 704 1h 30m Las Vegas LAS 21:55 → SJC 23:30WN 660 4h 50m 73% 51%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 20:00 → SAN 21:22AS 2342 · flown by Horizon 1h 03m San Diego SAN 22:25 → SJC 23:55AS 1624 4h 55m 49% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON