Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 1605 at 10:28, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1605 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 10:28	SNA 11:45	15%	4%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BOI 06:30 → SMF 06:55WN 715	2h 05m Sacramento	SMF 09:00 → SNA 10:30WN 3329	5h 00m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	BOI 05:25 → PHX 06:30WN 4470	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 08:10 → SNA 09:30WN 3348	5h 05m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229	3h 14m Portland	PDX 19:59 → SNA 22:30AS 518	7h 07m	98%	86%
United Details →	BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782	2h 51m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320	7h 21m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	BOI 06:00 → LAS 06:45WN 701	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 09:10 → SNA 10:20WN 187	5h 20m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	BOI 11:10 → SMF 11:40WN 716	1h 40m Sacramento	SMF 13:20 → SNA 14:50WN 2738	4h 40m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	BOI 06:23 → SEA 07:00AS 423	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 08:18 → SNA 11:15AS 759	5h 52m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264	4h 50m	94%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45UA 2395	47m Denver	DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725	5h 15m	69%	57%
Southwest Details →	BOI 19:20 → SMF 19:45WN 717	1h 00m Sacramento	SMF 20:45 → SNA 22:20WN 3837	4h 00m	63%	52%
Southwest Details →	BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25WN 704	50m Las Vegas	LAS 21:15 → SNA 22:25WN 1590	3h 45m	46%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON