Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2242 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2242 BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1897 BOS 19:51 → ATL 22:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2242 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:30	ATL 08:21	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 695 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:45	ATL 09:34	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 456 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:05	ATL 11:55	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 923 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:00	ATL 10:51	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 385 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:15	ATL 13:04	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2779 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ATL 15:21	12%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 322 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:55	ATL 16:49	12%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 638 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:10	ATL 18:10	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 399 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:30	ATL 19:38	15%	6%	0.6%	70%
DL 973 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:10	ATL 22:24	17%	7%	0.6%	81%
B6 1097 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:30	ATL 11:16	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 2464 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:55	ATL 21:07	19%	7%	0.6%	75%
DL 900 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:40	ATL 23:55	20%	7%	0.6%	68%
F9 3511 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 11:59	ATL 14:53	26%	8%	1.0%	69%
B6 897 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:15	ATL 18:03	33%	12%	0.7%	64%
B6 1897 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:51	ATL 22:45	39%	17%	0.7%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON