Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, G4 256 at 10:04, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 256 Allegiant	BOS 10:04	AVL 12:23	14%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	56m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → AVL 12:20DL 2181	6h 25m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → AVL 11:08DL 573	5h 38m	100%	87%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 08:10 → AVL 11:09AA 3981 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	96%	86%
American Details →	BOS 08:06 → LGA 09:32AA 4377 · flown by Republic	3h 43m New York	LGA 13:15 → AVL 15:27AA 4342 · flown by Republic	7h 21m	100%	86%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → CLT 09:31AA 1462	3h 42m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	7h 19m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 27m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 40m	99%	82%
American Details →	BOS 10:55 → LGA 12:18AA 4373 · flown by Republic	3h 57m New York	LGA 16:15 → AVL 18:26AA 4607 · flown by Republic	7h 31m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BOS 17:44 → EWR 19:15UA 1647	1h 44m Newark	EWR 20:59 → AVL 23:15UA 4405 · flown by GoJet	5h 31m	74%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON