Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2141 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 2141 BOS 08:20 → BNA 10:16 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest WN 2338 BOS 20:00 → BNA 21:45 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:20	BNA 10:16	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
B6 1207 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:19	BNA 08:10	12%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 724 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 10:30	BNA 12:05	15%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:40	BNA 16:36	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
B6 1807 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:28	BNA 12:17	20%	5%	0.7%	88%
DL 2586 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:45	BNA 21:49	25%	9%	0.6%	60%
WN 725 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 14:10	BNA 15:50	26%	6%	0.5%	41%
B6 507 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:55	BNA 18:49	38%	13%	0.7%	57%
WN 2338 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 20:00	BNA 21:45	40%	13%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON