Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4666 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4666 BOS 09:21 → BUF 11:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1115 BOS 17:40 → BUF 19:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:21	BUF 11:11	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
B6 2115 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:02	BUF 09:35	14%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 4068 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 13:56	BUF 15:43	14%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 4616 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:05	BUF 21:55	19%	8%	0.9%	72%
B6 715 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 22:10	BUF 23:43	28%	14%	0.9%	66%
B6 1115 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:40	BUF 19:19	33%	13%	1.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON