Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 257 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:43	BZN 11:42	15%	5%	0.9%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946	9h 37m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	BOS 07:30 → MDW 09:10WN 745	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 11:00 → BZN 13:10WN 1139	7h 40m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	9h 29m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406	9h 41m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	51m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → BZN 10:24DL 1226	6h 29m	94%	87%
United Details →	BOS 06:21 → LAX 09:35UA 360	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212	12h 03m	100%	87%
United Details →	BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224	7h 44m	97%	87%
United Details →	BOS 08:15 → ORD 10:12UA 1834	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623	8h 58m	100%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 18:45 → SLC 22:11DL 445	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	7h 38m	75%	65%
Southwest Details →	BOS 17:30 → DEN 20:10WN 742	1h 35m Denver	DEN 21:45 → BZN 23:35WN 1505	8h 05m	70%	57%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:40 → SEA 19:11DL 2889	48m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	9h 09m	67%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON