Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5674 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 5674 BOS 08:30 → CLE 10:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 5655 BOS 20:55 → CLE 23:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5674 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:30	CLE 10:35	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:54	CLE 17:06	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
B6 2041 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:15	CLE 09:17	12%	3%	0.7%	83%
B6 641 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:46	CLE 15:45	15%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 5655 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:55	CLE 23:07	22%	6%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON