Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 418 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 418 BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1552 BOS 18:55 → CLT 21:33 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 418 American Flight history →	BOS 06:05	CLT 08:30	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	CLT 08:56	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 1462 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	CLT 09:31	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:05	CLT 12:35	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 2715 American Flight history →	BOS 08:05	CLT 10:30	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:13	CLT 16:54	10%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 3161 American Flight history →	BOS 11:20	CLT 13:45	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 1548 American Flight history →	BOS 10:13	CLT 12:38	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 1611 American Flight history →	BOS 14:26	CLT 17:00	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 5807 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:40	CLT 22:20	16%	6%	0.8%	66%
AA 1573 American Flight history →	BOS 16:46	CLT 19:28	22%	7%	0.6%	67%
AA 1552 American Flight history →	BOS 18:55	CLT 21:33	23%	7%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON