Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4399 BOS 08:09 → CMH 10:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 4641 BOS 19:50 → CMH 22:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4399 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:09	CMH 10:30	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:11	CMH 10:31	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:38	CMH 16:58	8%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 3470 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 12:40	CMH 14:56	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 5629 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:25	CMH 21:50	14%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 4641 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:50	CMH 22:12	15%	5%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON