Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5601 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 5601 BOS 08:45 → CVG 11:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3408 BOS 18:20 → CVG 21:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5601 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:45	CVG 11:12	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 4760 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:55	CVG 14:30	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 5598 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:40	CVG 14:07	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 5789 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:12	CVG 16:45	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 5620 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:00	CVG 19:40	16%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 5801 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:45	CVG 23:16	19%	5%	0.8%	69%
AA 3408 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 18:20	CVG 21:00	23%	7%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON