Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via BWI, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 737 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 17:50	DAL 21:00	38%	10%	0.6%	39%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BOS 05:35 → STL 07:25WN 752	2h 20m St Louis	STL 09:45 → DAL 11:25WN 4196	6h 50m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	BOS 05:45 → BWI 07:20WN 727	55m Baltimore	BWI 08:15 → DAL 10:25WN 930	5h 40m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 54m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	BOS 05:25 → MDW 07:00WN 3239	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → DAL 12:15WN 1487	7h 50m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	BOS 07:30 → MDW 09:10WN 745	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	8h 05m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	BOS 06:25 → DEN 08:50WN 4156	1h 15m Denver	DEN 10:05 → DAL 13:10WN 1518	7h 45m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	8h 03m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	BOS 08:55 → BWI 10:35WN 732	3h 40m Baltimore	BWI 14:15 → DAL 16:15WN 932	8h 20m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BOS 17:20 → BWI 19:10WN 1898	50m Baltimore	BWI 20:00 → DAL 22:10WN 693	5h 50m	70%	49%
Southwest Details →	BOS 18:50 → STL 20:55WN 754	55m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	5h 40m	67%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON