Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5687 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 5687 BOS 06:00 → DCA 07:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 455 BOS 20:06 → DCA 21:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DCA 07:49	5%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 2159 American Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DCA 07:44	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:15	DCA 11:07	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 4505 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:00	DCA 09:00	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 5692 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:25	DCA 09:21	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 1550 American Flight history →	BOS 08:19	DCA 10:01	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
B6 2255 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:05	DCA 07:49	9%	3%	0.8%	61%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:20	DCA 12:12	9%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1605 American Flight history →	BOS 09:18	DCA 10:59	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 4349 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:33	DCA 13:25	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 5857 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:35	DCA 14:27	12%	3%	0.7%	75%
DL 5704 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:48	DCA 23:44	13%	4%	0.9%	77%
AA 1556 American Flight history →	BOS 10:51	DCA 12:33	13%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:20	DCA 16:17	14%	4%	0.8%	69%
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:19	DCA 17:21	14%	4%	0.7%	62%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:45	DCA 17:49	14%	5%	0.8%	69%
B6 2355 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:29	DCA 10:10	14%	5%	0.8%	66%
B6 1055 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:20	DCA 12:01	18%	6%	0.8%	86%
DL 5667 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:50	DCA 19:56	22%	7%	0.8%	63%
DL 5666 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:05	DCA 22:03	23%	6%	0.9%	59%
AA 1541 American Flight history →	BOS 20:56	DCA 22:44	25%	7%	0.8%	55%
B6 855 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:53	DCA 14:34	26%	11%	0.8%	65%
AA 1557 American Flight history →	BOS 17:23	DCA 19:14	27%	9%	0.8%	53%
AA 852 American Flight history →	BOS 19:27	DCA 21:15	28%	9%	0.9%	38%
B6 1355 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:14	DCA 18:00	35%	15%	0.9%	57%
B6 1955 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:21	DCA 19:09	38%	17%	1.0%	57%
B6 455 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:06	DCA 21:50	40%	16%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON