Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2527 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2527 BOS 06:00 → DFW 09:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1577 BOS 17:52 → DFW 21:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2527 American Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DFW 09:22	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 2555 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	DFW 10:22	8%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 701 American Flight history →	BOS 08:01	DFW 11:21	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:15	DFW 10:23	10%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 479 American Flight history →	BOS 09:01	DFW 12:19	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 303 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:05	DFW 15:17	14%	4%	0.6%	69%
AA 1583 American Flight history →	BOS 12:38	DFW 15:59	15%	4%	0.8%	68%
AA 820 American Flight history →	BOS 14:27	DFW 17:50	16%	5%	0.8%	72%
DL 2305 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:20	DFW 22:39	21%	10%	0.6%	67%
AA 1595 American Flight history →	BOS 16:06	DFW 19:38	21%	7%	0.8%	74%
AA 1577 American Flight history →	BOS 17:52	DFW 21:20	28%	7%	0.9%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471	6h 08m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 54m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:00 → LGA 08:30DL 2770	1h 00m New York	LGA 09:30 → DFW 12:09DL 856	6h 09m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON