Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1833 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–45%.

Safest bet that day UA 1833 BOS 06:05 → EWR 07:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1647 BOS 17:44 → EWR 19:15 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1833 United Flight history →	BOS 06:05	EWR 07:29	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 5764 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	EWR 07:54	5%	1%	1.0%	94%
UA 570 United Flight history →	BOS 08:00	EWR 09:23	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1307 United Flight history →	BOS 09:30	EWR 10:58	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 2394 United Flight history →	BOS 10:58	EWR 12:26	13%	6%	0.7%	88%
DL 5829 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:55	EWR 14:22	22%	6%	1.0%	71%
UA 1076 United Flight history →	BOS 14:30	EWR 16:02	26%	10%	0.9%	78%
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:15	EWR 19:58	29%	10%	1.4%	60%
UA 2060 United Flight history →	BOS 20:26	EWR 21:59	38%	13%	0.8%	64%
UA 1647 United Flight history →	BOS 17:44	EWR 19:15	45%	16%	0.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON