Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 569 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–51%.

Safest bet that day B6 569 BOS 05:10 → FLL 08:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 2269 BOS 16:39 → FLL 20:10 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 569 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 05:10	FLL 08:30	13%	3%	1.1%	82%
DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:55	FLL 11:24	16%	4%	1.0%	82%
B6 669 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:54	FLL 11:20	25%	6%	1.1%	83%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:32	FLL 19:04	33%	11%	1.2%	62%
B6 269 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:30	FLL 15:56	36%	13%	1.3%	59%
B6 2269 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:39	FLL 20:10	51%	21%	2.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON