Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4738 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:25	ILM 14:39	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
B6 1293 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:30	ILM 15:35	17%	6%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	8h 13m	100%	91%
United Details →	BOS 06:05 → EWR 07:29UA 1833	2h 53m Newark	EWR 10:22 → ILM 12:12UA 3587 · flown by Republic	6h 07m	99%	88%
American Details →	BOS 06:00 → LGA 07:24AA 4424 · flown by Republic	1h 15m New York	LGA 08:39 → ILM 10:40AA 4428 · flown by Republic	4h 40m	99%	88%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → ILM 12:51AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	100%	87%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → ILM 12:33AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont	6h 28m	98%	85%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → CLT 09:31AA 1462	3h 34m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → ILM 14:19AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont	7h 19m	98%	84%
United Details →	BOS 07:19 → ORD 09:17UA 2631	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 11:34 → ILM 15:00UA 5932 · flown by SkyWest	7h 41m	100%	83%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → ORD 09:01AA 1509	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → ILM 15:01AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	8h 01m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 10:49 → PHL 12:26AA 2783	46m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	4h 08m	75%	61%
American Details →	BOS 18:55 → CLT 21:33AA 1552	52m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017	4h 38m	73%	55%
Delta Details →	BOS 18:00 → LGA 19:34DL 5831 · flown by Republic	56m New York	LGA 20:30 → ILM 22:44DL 5204 · flown by Endeavor	4h 44m	73%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON