Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4435 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 4435 BOS 07:00 → IND 09:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4585 BOS 17:51 → IND 20:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4435 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:00	IND 09:45	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 5628 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:35	IND 10:16	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 5627 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:59	IND 16:46	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 4636 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:46	IND 16:29	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 5616 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:45	IND 20:34	17%	6%	0.7%	77%
G4 594 Allegiant Flight history →	BOS 11:34	IND 14:02	18%	7%	0.7%	88%
AA 4585 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:51	IND 20:43	18%	6%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON