Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5597 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 5597 BOS 08:50 → JAX 11:44 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 509 BOS 16:59 → JAX 19:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:50	JAX 11:44	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
B6 109 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:05	JAX 09:56	14%	4%	0.9%	85%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:35	JAX 18:41	18%	6%	0.8%	76%
DL 5593 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	JAX 23:39	26%	7%	1.2%	71%
B6 509 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:59	JAX 19:54	33%	12%	1.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON