Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4401 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 4401 BOS 06:01 → JFK 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest B6 1117 BOS 20:38 → JFK 21:59 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4401 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:01	JFK 07:30	4%	1%	0.8%	97%
DL 2611 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:05	JFK 07:30	5%	3%	0.7%	93%
B6 917 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 05:01	JFK 06:14	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 5720 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:05	JFK 10:24	8%	2%	0.8%	87%
AA 4366 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:25	JFK 13:54	12%	4%	0.8%	80%
B6 1017 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:41	JFK 09:59	13%	4%	0.9%	67%
DL 5808 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:35	JFK 15:10	15%	4%	0.8%	76%
DL 5702 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:20	JFK 22:47	21%	6%	1.0%	66%
B6 717 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:44	JFK 13:59	22%	9%	0.8%	62%
AA 4390 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:46	JFK 19:29	26%	7%	0.9%	57%
DL 5814 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	JFK 18:42	26%	7%	0.9%	66%
B6 317 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:05	JFK 18:26	37%	13%	0.9%	60%
B6 817 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:39	JFK 21:00	39%	13%	0.9%	55%
B6 1117 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:38	JFK 21:59	40%	12%	0.9%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON