Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 497 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 497 BOS 07:50 → LAS 10:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 777 BOS 19:59 → LAS 22:47 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 497 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:50	LAS 10:32	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
B6 1177 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:15	LAS 11:02	20%	4%	0.6%	87%
B6 777 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:59	LAS 22:47	39%	12%	0.7%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BOS 05:35 → STL 07:25WN 752	1h 50m St Louis	STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327	8h 05m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 36m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 30m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON