Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4424 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4424 BOS 06:00 → LGA 07:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4632 BOS 17:51 → LGA 19:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4424 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LGA 07:24	4%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 5836 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LGA 07:23	5%	2%	0.9%	95%
DL 2770 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:00	LGA 08:30	6%	3%	0.8%	98%
AA 4396 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:04	LGA 08:30	7%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 4377 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:06	LGA 09:32	8%	2%	0.9%	91%
DL 5735 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:00	LGA 09:25	9%	2%	0.9%	87%
DL 5732 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:00	LGA 10:22	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 4373 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:55	LGA 12:18	11%	3%	0.9%	80%
DL 5755 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LGA 12:19	11%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 5744 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:00	LGA 11:15	12%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 5748 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:00	LGA 14:27	13%	5%	0.9%	82%
AA 4367 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:23	LGA 13:49	13%	5%	0.9%	74%
DL 5854 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:00	LGA 13:21	14%	5%	0.9%	71%
DL 5730 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:00	LGA 15:20	17%	6%	1.0%	77%
AA 4375 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:04	LGA 15:30	18%	6%	1.1%	68%
DL 5736 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:00	LGA 16:30	20%	7%	1.0%	74%
DL 5840 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 22:00	LGA 23:23	21%	10%	1.3%	69%
DL 5609 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:00	LGA 22:21	24%	11%	1.3%	67%
DL 5726 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:00	LGA 17:30	25%	10%	1.0%	68%
DL 5831 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:00	LGA 19:34	25%	14%	1.1%	65%
DL 5716 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:59	LGA 20:29	28%	15%	1.2%	64%
DL 5721 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:00	LGA 18:29	29%	11%	1.1%	69%
DL 5849 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:00	LGA 21:29	30%	14%	1.2%	50%
AA 4397 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:00	LGA 21:26	30%	14%	1.2%	64%
AA 4632 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:51	LGA 19:19	33%	14%	1.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON