Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4715 at 20:30, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4715 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:30	MDT 22:10	23%	8%	0.8%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 08:05 → MDT 11:11AA 4746 · flown by Republic	6h 01m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 10:33 → MDT 12:03DL 4065 · flown by SkyWest	6h 33m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → MDT 14:10DL 2517	7h 25m	99%	84%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → MDT 09:40UA 4986 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 55m	98%	83%
American Details →	BOS 09:37 → PHL 11:12AA 3225	1h 43m Philadelphia	PHL 12:55 → MDT 14:00AA 5963 · flown by Piedmont	4h 23m	98%	83%
United Details →	BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → MDT 13:34UA 4798 · flown by SkyWest	7h 34m	100%	82%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 12:45 → MDT 13:50UA 4372 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 25m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → MDT 13:17DL 4717 · flown by Endeavor	7h 47m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309	56m Philadelphia	PHL 19:45 → MDT 21:03AA 6109 · flown by Piedmont	3h 55m	65%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON