tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5594 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 21:15 MEM 23:35 22% 7% 1.2% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:25 → MDW 07:00WN 3239 3h 05m Chicago MDW 10:05 → MEM 11:40WN 2824 7h 15m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 8h 02m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019 1h 07m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MEM 09:40DL 3137 5h 10m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127 3h 00m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 23m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 06:25 → DEN 08:50WN 4156 1h 40m Denver DEN 10:30 → MEM 13:55WN 4698 8h 30m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:47 → IAH 08:50UA 1409 3h 05m Houston IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41UA 5758 · flown by SkyWest 8h 54m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:00 → DFW 09:22AA 2527 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:16AA 3676 · flown by Envoy 9h 16m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:23 → DCA 19:14AA 1557 46m Washington DCA 20:00 → MEM 21:25AA 5491 · flown by PSA 5h 02m 64% 47%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 20:00 → BNA 21:45WN 2338 1h 05m Nashville BNA 22:50 → MEM 23:55WN 580 4h 55m 64% 44%
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:55 → MIA 21:35AA 1562 53m Miami MIA 22:28 → MEM 23:55AA 1551 7h 00m 54% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON