Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1418 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1418 BOS 05:10 → MIA 08:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1562 BOS 17:55 → MIA 21:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1418 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	MIA 08:38	6%	2%	1.1%	96%
AA 873 American Flight history →	BOS 06:00	MIA 09:30	9%	2%	1.4%	90%
DL 1399 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:05	MIA 10:35	13%	3%	1.2%	86%
AA 1259 American Flight history →	BOS 08:00	MIA 11:34	14%	3%	2.0%	90%
AA 815 American Flight history →	BOS 10:56	MIA 14:30	22%	5%	2.0%	88%
AA 1589 American Flight history →	BOS 13:42	MIA 17:22	24%	8%	1.2%	78%
AA 1565 American Flight history →	BOS 15:15	MIA 18:58	29%	9%	1.3%	69%
DL 776 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:15	MIA 18:58	30%	10%	1.2%	64%
AA 1562 American Flight history →	BOS 17:55	MIA 21:35	33%	9%	1.3%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON