Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5603 at 13:08 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5603 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:08	MSN 15:03	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 4692 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:23	MSN 22:10	23%	7%	0.8%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BOS 07:00 → DCA 09:00AA 4505 · flown by Republic	1h 50m Washington	DCA 10:50 → MSN 12:13AA 4523 · flown by Republic	6h 13m	100%	91%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 11:25 → MSN 12:47AA 5457 · flown by PSA	7h 42m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	87%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → ORD 09:01AA 1509	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 11:22 → MSN 12:32AA 3437 · flown by Envoy	6h 32m	97%	86%
United Details →	BOS 06:05 → EWR 07:29UA 1833	1h 04m Newark	EWR 08:33 → MSN 10:04UA 3608 · flown by Republic	4h 59m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 52m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	3h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → MSN 14:04DL 4032 · flown by SkyWest	7h 54m	99%	85%
American Details →	BOS 06:01 → PHL 07:44AA 1146	2h 46m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → MSN 12:06AA 5310 · flown by PSA	7h 05m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764	50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → MSN 12:06AA 5310 · flown by PSA	5h 03m	73%	63%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	58m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → MSN 20:59DL 3544 · flown by SkyWest	4h 44m	70%	58%
United Details →	BOS 16:57 → DEN 19:45UA 800	49m Denver	DEN 20:34 → MSN 23:59UA 5214 · flown by SkyWest	8h 02m	66%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON