tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:55, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1398 Delta Flight history → BOS 11:20 MSY 13:56 12% 4% 0.8% 85%
B6 401 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 11:35 MSY 14:08 20% 7% 0.8% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 7h 07m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:25 → MDW 07:00WN 3239 1h 50m Chicago MDW 08:50 → MSY 11:05WN 2834 6h 40m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 17m Dulles IAD 08:40 → MSY 10:24UA 2253 5h 39m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324 2h 26m Chicago ORD 09:30 → MSY 12:05AA 4748 · flown by Republic 7h 55m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:45 → BWI 07:20WN 727 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 09:25 → MSY 11:05WN 4692 6h 20m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BOS 08:00 → EWR 09:23UA 570 3h 10m Newark EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468 7h 44m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BOS 08:15 → ORD 10:12UA 1834 3h 53m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 9h 34m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611 1h 00m New York JFK 08:30 → MSY 10:51DL 1368 5h 46m 95% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BOS 20:00 → BNA 21:45WN 2338 1h 05m Nashville BNA 22:50 → MSY 00:25 +1WN 597 5h 25m 64% 47%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 17:50 → DAL 21:00WN 737 1h 00m Dallas DAL 22:00 → MSY 23:30WN 1370 6h 40m 62% 39%
JetBlueDetails → BOS 16:39 → FLL 20:10B6 2269 1h 06m Fort Lauderdale FLL 21:16 → MSY 22:24B6 2823 6h 45m 53% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON