tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5809 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5809 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 09:20 ORF 11:11 9% 2% 0.7% 92%
B6 1813 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 15:27 ORF 17:10 23% 8% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:45 → BWI 07:20WN 727 55m Baltimore BWI 08:15 → ORF 09:20WN 1035 3h 35m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 07m Dulles IAD 08:30 → ORF 09:39UA 2112 3h 54m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098 1h 58m Dulles IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa 4h 52m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 5h 58m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:00 → LGA 07:24AA 4424 · flown by Republic 2h 05m New York LGA 09:29 → ORF 11:08AA 4473 · flown by Republic 5h 08m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324 56m Chicago ORD 08:00 → ORF 11:28AA 4643 · flown by Republic 6h 18m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748 3h 06m Detroit DTW 14:30 → ORF 16:21DL 1621 7h 06m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → BOS 10:49 → PHL 12:26AA 2783 3h 06m Philadelphia PHL 15:32 → ORF 16:52AA 4749 · flown by Republic 6h 03m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309 1h 01m Philadelphia PHL 19:50 → ORF 21:23AA 5632 · flown by PSA 4h 18m 66% 51%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 19:50 → BWI 21:35WN 735 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 22:35 → ORF 23:40WN 1040 3h 50m 69% 49%
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:23 → DCA 19:14AA 1557 52m Washington DCA 20:06 → ORF 21:11AA 5662 · flown by PSA 3h 48m 68% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON