Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1580 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 1580 BOS 07:05 → MCO 10:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 251 BOS 20:45 → MCO 23:58 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:05	MCO 10:11	9%	3%	15.0%	91%
AA 2735 American Flight history →	BOS 09:00	MCO 12:16	12%	4%	15.7%	91%
B6 351 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:00	MCO 11:12	18%	5%	13.4%	85%
F9 1977 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 10:04	MCO 13:40	21%	7%	17.5%	89%
B6 1531 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:30	MCO 13:40	22%	7%	16.7%	79%
DL 2887 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:27	MCO 18:54	24%	9%	15.5%	73%
B6 51 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:10	MCO 15:22	27%	11%	17.2%	60%
B6 2251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:44	MCO 17:00	28%	11%	15.7%	75%
DL 1513 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:16	MCO 23:32	33%	8%	16.7%	68%
B6 451 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:30	MCO 19:51	34%	19%	15.7%	53%
B6 251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:45	MCO 23:58	46%	18%	15.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON