Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 311 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day AS 311 BOS 06:03 → PDX 09:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 95 BOS 19:19 → PDX 22:31 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 311 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 06:03	PDX 09:19	9%	1%	0.7%	88%
B6 395 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:55	PDX 13:03	18%	4%	0.8%	76%
AS 1319 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 16:54	PDX 20:15	21%	5%	0.7%	71%
B6 95 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:19	PDX 22:31	27%	9%	0.9%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167	8h 28m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	7h 46m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → SLC 09:17DL 859	1h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	9h 05m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON