Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5845 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 5845 BOS 06:50 → PHL 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3309 BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:50	PHL 08:30	4%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 1146 American Flight history →	BOS 06:01	PHL 07:44	6%	2%	0.8%	95%
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:50	PHL 12:28	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
B6 1159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:00	PHL 08:30	9%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 2764 American Flight history →	BOS 08:03	PHL 09:40	14%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:10	PHL 16:53	14%	5%	0.7%	78%
AA 3225 American Flight history →	BOS 09:37	PHL 11:12	15%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 2783 American Flight history →	BOS 10:49	PHL 12:26	17%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 3043 American Flight history →	BOS 12:38	PHL 14:16	20%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:20	PHL 19:15	21%	7%	0.8%	66%
DL 5610 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:25	PHL 22:07	21%	7%	0.9%	57%
B6 2459 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:21	PHL 20:00	29%	13%	0.8%	69%
AA 2882 American Flight history →	BOS 15:03	PHL 16:39	29%	7%	0.8%	56%
AA 1147 American Flight history →	BOS 19:37	PHL 21:20	32%	9%	0.8%	46%
AA 3309 American Flight history →	BOS 17:05	PHL 18:49	35%	10%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON