Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2315 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2315 BOS 07:00 → PHX 09:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 514 BOS 17:50 → PHX 20:28 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2315 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	PHX 09:33	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 377 American Flight history →	BOS 10:04	PHX 12:36	15%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 1057 American Flight history →	BOS 13:00	PHX 15:45	18%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 3313 American Flight history →	BOS 17:07	PHX 19:50	27%	8%	0.7%	67%
DL 514 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:50	PHX 20:28	29%	8%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BOS 05:25 → MDW 07:00WN 3239	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016	7h 55m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 48m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	7h 14m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON