Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2066 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2066 BOS 06:20 → RDU 08:28 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 2783 BOS 20:54 → RDU 22:59 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2066 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	RDU 08:28	7%	3%	0.9%	91%
B6 1883 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:30	RDU 08:33	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
DL 2118 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:00	RDU 12:04	12%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 2283 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:03	RDU 15:09	16%	5%	0.7%	83%
B6 2283 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:19	RDU 13:20	23%	7%	0.8%	78%
F9 3057 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 08:41	RDU 10:49	25%	7%	0.8%	73%
DL 2782 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:15	RDU 19:37	28%	9%	0.7%	75%
DL 817 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:05	RDU 22:15	33%	9%	0.8%	55%
B6 2783 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:54	RDU 22:59	41%	15%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON